Reading: China's potential economic growth has declined, showing a steady trend in the medium and short term. Considering that the supply of electric coal is sufficient and the utilization hours of power generation equipment are at a lower level, if the weather is not affected by the weather, the growth ratio of power generation will be between 4.5%-5.5% in 2015, and the supply and demand of electricity is generally balanced, and the tension of electricity supply and demand may appear in some areas.
Current situation of China's electric power market
(1) general situation of electric power production
1. the power generation increase obviously slows down. In recent years, China's electricity generation has maintained a high growth rate. From 2007 to 2011, power generation increased from 32559 to 47217 kwh to 47217 kwh, an increase of about 45%, and an average annual growth rate of 11.1%. However, the growth rate dropped to 4.7% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2014, although in 2013, the growth rate was 7.5%, but 7.5%, but 7.5%, but 7.5%, but 7.5% in 2013. The overall growth trend has shown a marked slowdown. In 2014, the national power generation was 54638 billion kwh, of which, the hydropower growth was 18% year-on-year, the nuclear power increased by 18.89%, and the thermal power decreased by 0.4% year on year. This is due to the decrease of thermal power in thermal power. If the temperature factors are eliminated, it should be in the increase in 2015. Although the growth rate of China's power generation has slowed in recent years, the average growth rate of world power generation is 2.2%-2.3% by 2035 according to the forecast by major international energy agencies such as EIA, IEA and IEEJ, and the growth rate of China's electricity generation is still far higher than that of this growth rate.
2. the capacity of power generation equipment has increased too fast, and the problem of over investment has become more prominent. In 2012, China's new installed capacity was 84 million 230 thousand KW, up to 7.93% from the same year, up to 9.25% in 2013, and 8.7% in 2014. In 2012, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment for power plants of 6000 kilowatts and above were 4572 hours, 158 hours lower than 2011, 4511 hours in 2013, 61 hours compared with the same period, 4286 hours in 2014, and 225 hours lower than the same period. The capacity of power generation installed for three years continues to increase, and the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decline year by year, reflecting the efficiency of the investment speed of the power generation equipment far beyond the total power generation equipment.
(2) an overview of the electricity market
There is no fundamental change in the irrational use of electricity in the 1. industry. The power consumption of the second industry in China for three years is up to 74%, of which, the power consumption of the heavy industry for three years is about 60%, and the third industry and the residential electricity appear more than 10% of the annual growth rate in 2012. In 2013, there has been a decline and a substantial decline in 2014, and the heavy industry has been over the high industry for a long time. There is no change in the unreasonable electricity structure. In 2014, since the average national temperature in August was 0.2 degrees lower than that of the same period in August and 1.5 degrees lower than the same period of the previous year, the electricity consumption of enterprises and residents was significantly reduced, and the national electricity consumption was 55233 billion kwh, up 3.8%, of which the first industry electricity consumption was 99 billion 400 million kwh, down 0.2% compared to the same period, and the second industry 40650 billion kwh, up 3.7%. The third industry was 666 billion kwh, up 6.4%, and the urban and rural residents' life was 692 billion 800 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and the heavy industrial electricity consumption was 33272 billion kwh, up 3.6%.
In the field of high energy consumption, the power consumption of non-ferrous metals and chemical industry maintained a high growth trend, the proportion of black metal consumption accounted for no obvious increase and decrease law, while the building material field appeared in 2012 and continued to rise for two years after a slight drop in the field. The whole show that the energy saving effect in the high energy consumption field is not good. In 1-11 months of 2014, the energy consumption of black metal, non-ferrous metal, chemical and building materials industry in the four big energy consuming industries was 4022, 2884, 2856 and 235 billion 900 million kwh respectively, and the growth rate was -0.9%, 4.5%, 3.4% and 5.1% respectively.
2. the overall balance of power supply and demand, local power shortage. The fastest growing areas of social electricity consumption are mainly distributed in the northwest. Xinjiang (13.4%), Inner Mongolia (10.7%), Fujian (9.3%), Hainan (8.9%), Guangdong (8.7%), Jiangxi (7.3%), Qinghai (7%), Chongqing (6.7%), Guangxi (5.7%), Shaanxi (5.6%), Yunnan (5.3%), Ningxia (5.3%), Ningxia (5.3%), Ningxia (4.8%) and Guizhou were the provinces of Xinjiang (13.4%), Inner Mongolia (10.7%), Fujian (9.3%), Hainan (8.9%), Guangdong (8.7%), Jiangxi (7.3%), Qinghai (7%), Chongqing (6.7%), and Guangxi (7%). Xinjiang, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hainan, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have maintained high growth for three years. Tibet, Anhui, Gansu and Jiangsu have maintained a high growth of two years in 2014, and the growth of Fujian, Chongqing, Ningxia and Jiangsu has increased in the last two years.
The regional growth of social electricity consumption is basically the same as the growth trend of regional electricity consumption. In the 1-11 month of 2014, the highest electric load growth in Northwest China was the fastest growth, which was 5.7%. The highest electric load growth of North China was increased by 3%. The peak electric load of East China, central China and Northeast China increased by 1.9%, 0.9% and 1.4% respectively.
In the case of ensuring the basic balance of power supply in the country, there is a lack of electricity in some areas, but most of these areas are not areas of high increase in electricity consumption, mainly due to the shortage of electricity resources and the influence of air temperature, and lack of foreign aid. 1-11 months of 2014, mainly affected by low temperature in summer weather, the power gap was less than last year, the largest power gap was 5 million 400 thousand kilowatts, of which 360 thousand kilowatts in Tianjin, 2 million 390 thousand KW in Hebei south network, 870 thousand KW in northern Hebei, 3 million 600 thousand kilowatts in Shandong, 1 million 120 thousand KW in Jiangsu, Anhui 200 thousand KW, Fujian 130 thousand KW and 9 Henan, 9 0 kilowatts, 1 million 160 thousand kilowatts in Shaanxi, and 85 thousand kilowatts in Tibet.
(three) low level of international cooperation
At present, the interconnection of multinational power grids has become a trend of development. Many countries have established interconnection and cooperation relations between the power grid, in order to make full use of global energy, especially clean energy, and China has progresses very slowly in the field of international cooperation in electric power. In 1-11 months of 2014, the import and export electricity volume of the whole country totaled 23 billion 30 million kwh, accounting for only 0.4% of the total electricity consumption of 50116 kilowatt hours in the same period, representing a decrease of 7.2% over the same period. Among them, the import power was 5 billion 560 million kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and the export power of 17 billion 470 million kwh, a decrease of 5% over the same period last year. The top three of the total export volume were Hongkong (60%), Macao (22%) and Vietnam (11%). Hongkong and Macao account for 82% of China's exports, so there is actually less cooperation between the mainland and other countries.
(four) the structure of power investment tends to be reasonable
According to IEA, China's electricity investment in 2012 accounted for 67% of the total investment in the energy industry, and it is the key area of future energy investment in -2035. In 2014, the national electricity investment was 776 billion 400 million yuan, up 0.5% year on year, 364 billion 600 million yuan in Power Investment (including 96 billion yuan, 95 billion 200 million yuan, 56 billion 900 million yuan, 99 billion 300 million yuan and 411 billion 800 million yuan for power grid), 5.8% in the same period, 411 billion 800 million yuan from the same year, and an increase of 6.8% over the same period. Electricity investment showed a continuous growth trend, but in general, power investment gradually declined and grid investment increased.
In 2014, thermal power accounted for 45.7% and hydropower was 21%. The ratio of new power generation capacity to power generation is obviously lower than about 80% of thermal power generation for three years, while the proportion of other clean energy production capacity is higher than that of power generation, which reflects China's tendency to increase the power generation capacity of clean energy.
The characteristics of the transformation.
The development trend of power supply is basically stable. In the 1-8 month of 2014, new energy power generation increased by 12.5% year-on-year, thermal power decreased by 1.9% compared to the same period last year, hydropower decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year, and nuclear power increased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year. The above data show that the new energy power generation has a larger trend of increase, and the thermal power is decreasing slightly. In addition to the closing of nuclear reactors in Japan, the reduction of nuclear power is relatively large, and the water and electricity and nuclear power are slightly increased and reduced, reflecting the characteristics of the basic stability of the development trend of power supply.
Electricity consumption is unstable. First, the growth of the OECD generation is less than the decrease of the country's decrease in the year on year. In 2014, it is more obvious and consistent with the continuous decline in the power generation of the OECD countries in recent years, mainly due to the severe impact of the energy demand of the OECD countries in the global economic recession in 2008. According to IEA, by 2035, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in OECD countries is only 0.6% in this period, compared with 2.3% in non OECD countries, which is more optimistic than the actual power data. The two is the country that has accumulated electricity generation for the first time in more than two consecutive years. The growth rate of other countries is not obvious except for the steady growth of Chile. The other is the ten growth rate. In the countries that have accumulated more than two years on the same year, there are no obvious laws in other countries except Hungary, and the phenomenon of large and sometimes large amplitude decreases in many countries, showing the instability of power consumption in OECD countries.
2. major U.S. power indicators. Power generation in the United States is dominated by thermal power, natural gas and nuclear power. There is no obvious trend in the rise and fall. The three major power sources are stable, and the hydropower is declining year by year, and renewable energy is increasing year by year. In the 1-9 month of 2014, the total national net power generation in the United States accumulated 3 trillion and 117 billion 501 million kwh, an increase of 1.30%, of which coal electricity was 12318 kwh, 39.5%, and 2.6%; 844 billion 700 million kwh, 27.1%, and 0.7% compared to the same period of the same year; and 596 billion 200 million kilowatt hours of nuclear power, increased by 19.1%, 1.1%; hydropower 200 billion 600 million kilowatt hours , accounting for 6.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; renewable energy 206 billion 100 million kwh, accounting for 6.6%, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year.
Electricity sales in the United States are lower than electricity generation, and there has been no marked increase in sales in all sectors. In 1-9 months of 2014, the total sales volume of the United States increased by 2 trillion and 846 billion 295 million kwh, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the residents increased by 2% compared with the same period last year, and the sales of commercial electricity increased by 1.6% compared with the same period last year. The electricity consumption of the industry increased by 0.3% compared with the same period last year, and the electricity sales volume increased by 3.7% compared with the same period last year.
3. Japan's main power indicators. In recent years, Japan's power generation has shown a slight downward trend. In the past 2007-2011 years, the average growth rate of electricity generation is -0.3%. Japan is mainly thermal power, especially affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident, and the proportion of thermal power rises. In 1-8 month of 2014, the total output of ten power companies in Japan was 607 billion 21 million kwh, of which 447 billion 78 million kwh, 73.6%, 42 billion 396 million kwh, 1 billion 686 million kwh, 119 billion 664 million kwh, and a small amount of electricity. Because of the small proportion of new energy generation, it does not reflect the obvious advantage of the future international development of new energy, and rarely cooperate with other countries in power supply, and the import and export of electricity supply is zero in the month of 2014 in 1-4. After increasing the consumer tax, the economic growth in the second quarter of 2014 was more than expected, and its high public debt and the potential growth rate at a very low level had affected the growth of electricity consumption.
4. India main power index. India has maintained a high growth rate for a long time. In 1-10 months of 2014, the cumulative power generation capacity was 867 billion 161 million kwh, an increase of 9.95%, of which 717 billion 657 million kwh, 82.8%, 116 billion 99 million kilowatt hours, 13.4%, 28 billion 738 million kwh, 3.3%, and 4 billion 667 million kwh of Bhutan, accounted for 0.. 5%.
Thermal power, hydropower and nuclear power are the main source of power generation in India. Although the power generation remains high, the change of the power supply ratio is small, which shows the characteristics of the stability of the primary source of power generation. However, the proportion of imported electricity in India is very low, and electricity consumption is growing rapidly. At present, the population of 1/4 is in a state of power shortage. Because India electric power growth mainly comes from coal, and the coal quality is not good, the future will face enormous pressure of emission reduction. Strengthening the cooperation with other countries, promoting the development of clean energy and the clean use of coal as soon as possible is the key to solve the current energy problem in India.
Forecast of main power index in 2015
China's potential economic growth has declined, showing a steady trend in the medium and short term. Considering that the supply of electric coal is sufficient and the utilization hours of power generation equipment are at a lower level, if the weather is not affected by the weather, the growth ratio of power generation will be between 4.5%-5.5% in 2015, and the supply and demand of electricity is generally balanced, and the tension of electricity supply and demand may appear in some areas. In terms of investment, according to the plan, " will be built in 2020, the four vertical seven horizontal ", UHV backbone network and 19 UHV DC projects, the investment in power grid will be in the upward trend in a long period. At the same time, in order to improve the use of clean energy in order to improve the use of clean energy, the investment in building equipment will increase in order to improve the use of clean energy in some areas in 2014. In terms of international cooperation, the internationalization of power grids is becoming a trend in the future due to the increasingly common power grid cooperation between nations. The relevant domestic departments have recognized the situation, and put forward that by 2015, ", three electricity and one capital ", and other international business to achieve a comprehensive breakthrough, it is expected that the degree of international cooperation will be greatly improved in 2015 and in the future. At the global level, the growth of electricity generation and electricity consumption in 2015 will be higher than that in 2014.
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